Where negotiations stand on mobile NY sports betting on Easter weekend
The chatter about the cell phone NEW Sports betting are certainly more positive than starting Mondayalthough there are still many questions.
According to Rep. Gary Pretlow, New York sports betting is being rolled out to mobile devices in “some form”. Pretlow suggested that the worst-case scenario for this year is to agree to something that’s closer Governor Andrew CuomoPlan than that of Pretlow and Sen. Joe Addabbo Jr..
Approval of Cuomo’s plan could rightly leave the state one Pretlow feared a sports betting provider. More than one could be accepted, but ultimately it would be that New York State Gaming Commission make the call.
Pretlow said on Thursday afternoon that he was not giving up yet:
The budget may be tight, but we’re still pushing my plan. With multiple skins, the competitive market approach is considered the best model in the whole country.
– J Gary Pretlow (@JGPretlow) April 1, 2021
Why does Cuomo want closed-loop mobile sports betting in New York?
Unfortunately, not many details have been released as to exactly why Cuomo would want to go lottery style with his model. That could be because his attention is focused on more pressing issues.
However, he mentioned in January that he was concerned about making the state money, not the casinos:
“We want to do sports betting the way the state operates the lottery, in which the state generates the revenue. Many states have made sports betting, but they basically allow casinos to conduct their own gambling operations. That makes a lot of money for casinos, but little money for the state.
“And I’m not here to make a lot of money at casinos. I’m here to raise money for the state. So we have a different model for sports betting. “
Cuomo supports his plan New Hampshire Sports betting that passed DraftKings Sports Betting a mobile monopoly in exchange for 51% of receipts. His office assumes that mobile betting will eventually lead to this $ 500 million one year to the state.
Based on New Hampshire results for 2020, approximate 3.7% from his $ 293 million in the handle turned into tax revenue. A similar response rate would be required $ 13.5 billion for New York to get a grip on $ 500 million a year.
It’s not impossible, but neither does it seem likely that it will be there anytime soon. Sports betting in New Jersey just barely broken $ 6 billion under control for 2020 and it could be a conservative guess to say 20% of which came from New York.
The legislative model predicts $ 79 million per year
The tax assessment is attached S 1183 and A 1257 suggests that the state could do $ 79 million one year based on conservative estimates.
That would be with 14 skins through the state’s four commercial casinos and three tribal operators. It doesn’t include that either $ 168 million upfront that would come from royalties. Addabbo has also pushed for three additional downstate casinos that would increase the total skins available 20th.
Pretlow and Addabbo proposed taxing the income from sports betting 12%what suggests $ 658.3 million in annual revenue based on these tax estimates. With the average US sports betting hold of 7.1%, New York would need $ 9.3 billion under control annually to get this taxpayer money. That number would rise even higher Nevadais historical 5.4% hold as a model.
Now don’t get anywhere near that
New York is the only publicly reporting state that doesn’t say how much is actually wagered each month in its four commercial casinos. However, despite generous estimates, this number is not very high.
Consider NFL Betting season from September by February. The four casinos just had $ 13.6 million Sales over the six-month route.
Use of 7.1% Keep average, that suggests $ 191.5 million in the overall grip. It’s likely much lower, however, as retail-only states tend to have higher holds:
- At the Mississippi average hold of 11.5%, New York’s grip would be $ 118.5 million.
- Arkansas average 13.8% hold would make it $ 98.8 million.
- Delaware’s average hold of 15.5% would bring this total grip on $ 87.9 million.
That’s less than some of the larger states like Nevada, and New Jersey Pennsylvania play soccer in just a month.
Possible tribal problems with sports betting in New York?
A report from Albany late Thursday afternoon suggests another catch could challenge the New York sports betting negotiations:
A new wrinkle in NYS mobile sports betting talks to be resolved by state budget negotiators by @SenGriffo: pic.twitter.com/eMoUq36MYC
– Tom Precious (@TomPreciousALB) April 1, 2021